Thursday, May 25, 2017

No Clear Thinking Among "Climate" Scientists

I have submitted the following comment to a post about the "global warming pause" on Dr. Roy Spencer's site (the link may not work, if Dr. Spencer did not allow it to appear):

"...when the next big warm El Nino occurs, the zero trend will end. And that’s exactly what happened, with the 2015-16 El Nino. A trend is very sensitive to what happens at the end of a time series, and a big (natural) warm blip from El Nino is just what the doctor ordered. No more zero trend."


"You can’t build a case for human-caused warming by relying on natural warming!"

Dr. Spencer thinks the mere appearance of an El Nino ends the zero trend; but, generally speaking, that would depend upon what the temperature does after the end of the El Nino. If it goes right back to the "zero trend" level, then the zero trend continues; the El Nino is then just a bump in the road, soon enough forgotten. And as others have pointed out, the 2015-16 El Nino did not cause temperature to go higher than the 1998 one did (which is comparing "oranges to oranges", i.e. the maximum temperature at successive El Ninos, not the rise of a given El Nino compared to the trend preceding it, or succeeding it for that matter).

And "you can't build a case for human-caused warming by relying on natural warming" logically implies you can't build a case (for human-caused warming from observation of the "end of the zero trend") by relying on the temporary natural warming due to an El Nino.

So the two quotes of Dr. Spencer's above are at odds with one another. The first should be recognized as generally not true (unless the world does not recover from the El Nino; and though I stopped following the temperature reports, I don't believe the current 0.27 C anomaly reported here is significantly above the "zero trend" level of recent years, as the 0.8+ of the El Nino surely was, but it's obviously now gone).

Just stop saying the zero trend, or "global warming pause", is over.

Saturday, May 6, 2017

Who--or What--Is the "Fittest"?

I have submitted the following comment, on the American Thinker site, in answer to another commenter who took me to task for my claim that the idea of "survival of the fittest" is a dead-end, false dogma for mankind:

Every tyrant, so long as he is on top, can claim to be the "fittest". It is also known as "might makes right". Except the tyrant, even if he dies of old age, is NOT the fittest in the hearts and minds of all those he oppresses; and might does NOT make right--I am SURE you know that, though you might be inclined to deny it here.

In the end, who decides who--or what--is the "fittest"? Hitler was sure he knew, and how many people died in World War II because he was wrong (50, 60, 80 million, I don't remember)? America allowed slavery of blacks when it was first founded, because many in positions of influence and power believed THEY knew who was fittest (because they "knew" blacks were not), and that is still biting America where it hurts most.

In science, Darwin and his theory of undirected evolution (the very source of the phrase, and of today's idea, of "survival of the fittest") is taken--by the overwhelming, almost universal consensus--to be one of the fittest of theories; it governs and guides not just the life sciences but all the earth sciences too, as if the Earth just happened to "evolve", from gases and rocks thrown together in space, into the miracle of separate continents, ocean(s), environments and climates, supporting both animal and plant life, and both land and ocean life, in amazing diversity, in something that looks very much like harmony (ohmigod).

But Darwin was wrong, and all of the earth and life sciences that rely upon his theory are wrong, precisely to the extent that they do so rely on it (they are not wrong, precisely to the extent they recognize design, and study to know it, as the natural philosophers, like Leonardo da Vinci, who preceded them did). Science doesn't know this yet, but this scientist does, as no other scientist does, even the "creationists" and the "Intelligent Design" followers. As a hard scientist--a physicist--I have made the greatest discovery in history. I call it "the Great Design of the 'gods' ", and it is pretty much all-encompassing, being a physical design imposed upon the entire surface of the Earth, as well as, in the intellectual sphere. the original motivation for all the "ancient mysteries" you may read about, or see discussed on TV. It is in fact the single, until-now-hidden, source of all of mankind's earliest beliefs, and how they developed throughout succeeding history. So I speak as the discoverer of the next paradigm, that WILL replace the Darwinian paradigm that has ruled since his day.